Unemployment insurance returns to surplus

After thirteen consecutive years of deficit, since 2008, the plan will return to surpluses this year, according to forecasts presented Thursday by Unédic, the joint body that manages the plan.

2022 will mark a major turning point for unemployment insurance. After thirteen consecutive years of deficit, since 2008, the plan will return to surpluses this year, according to forecasts presented Thursday by Unédic, the joint body that manages the plan. The combination of several factors explains this return to better fortune. First of all, the sharp drop in spending with less recourse to partial activity. Next, “the good job situation“, with an unemployment rate down to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Unédic finally notes the first effects of the entry into force of the unemployment insurance reform which has allowed an increase in revenue. In the end, the plan will generate a surplus of 2.2 billion euros at the end of the year. Far from the 17.4 billion euros deficit recorded in 2020 and the 9.3 billion euros in 2021.

Unédic estimates that the favorable momentum will continue in 2023 with a surplus of 4.1 billion euros then 5.4 billion in 2024. Driven by growth that will remain at a high level, i.e. around 3.8% , job creation, which will necessarily be much more moderate than the 648,000 recorded in 2021, will remain significant. The organization plans 41,000 additional jobs at the end of 2022, 57,000 in 2023 and 61,000 in 2024.

In three years, the surplus generated by Unédic will make it possible to pay off 18% of the scheme’s total debt. But this one “however remains at a very high level“, concedes the new president of the organization, Patricia Ferrand (CFDT). In 2021, it reached 63.9 billion euros, including 19.2 billion to be attributed directly to the emergency measures deployed to counter the crisis between 2020 and 2021. If the government had planned to discuss with Unédic the future of this “covid debt“as part of its social agenda, “only one meeting took place and this parenthesis has since been closed», Details Patricia Ferrand. By 2024, the social partners therefore expect a debt of around 52.2 billion euros.

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